Daily Brief

May, 13 2014
Market Wrap as of May 12 : Take it to the Limit

The outlook may be uncertain, but that does not make it unpredictable. Consistent with a foggy crystal ball, the horizon is likewise variable.The current secular bear could remain in hibernation. The inflation rate could remain low and stable. Read more...

May, 06 2014
Market Wrap as of May 5

Risk appetites held up this week in spite of a horrible GDP print in the US. Investors were braced for an anemic print, expecting the unusually severe winter to take a big bite out of Q1 growth. Even so, investors don’t seem worried. Read more...

April, 22 2014
Market Wrap as of April 22 : Happy Easter Crisis

Ukraine’s crisis worsened this week and data confirmed that the Chinese economy is continuing to slow. Together these highlight the further crystallization of two key downside risks to the global economy. Yet risk appetites improved on the week. Read more...

April, 14 2014
Market Wrap as of April 14: Markets Hanging in Midair

Last week move certainly reflects a fear that once monetary policy makers pull back from their dovish stances, markets will realize they were just hanging there with no fundamental economic strength to support them. But even if the market retreat continues this week, the moment of reckoning isn’t yet upon us. Simply put, the central banks have more tricks up their sleeves, so an uncomfortable rally is set to continue. Read more...

April, 08 2014
Market Wrap as of April 7: Central Banks Bet

The ECB again left policy unchanged this week, remaining a model of indecision in the face of a weak recovery, massive excess capacity, uncomfortably low inflation and significant downside risks. However, as if to reassure markets that the ECB will “act swiftly if required.” Read more...

April, 01 2014
Market Wrap as of March 31: New Normal Outlook

The risks to growth remain skewed to the downside, primarily reflecting the possibility of a further growth disappointment in developing economies. Problems in China’s shadow banking system could be a central stress point. Moreover, geopolitical instability remains a source for serious market turbulence Read more...

March, 26 2014
Market Wrap as of March 24 : The Six Months Time Horizon !

The Fed Doesn’t Surprise, but the Market Reacts Anyway. As expected, quantitative easing (QE) was tapered another $10 billion last week and the Fed dropped its earlier guidance that it might start raising the Fed Funds rate when unemployment is 6.5% (confirming that it will wait longer than that, since we’re almost at 6.5%). Read more...

March, 17 2014
Market Wrap as of March 17 : The Russian Bear

Do we have more room to the downside here? Possibly; we're going to be watching a key technical level of support once the market opens for business on Monday, knowing that volatility is likely to pick up big time with some key economic numbers being released throughout the week, including manufacturing, inflation and housing data. Toss in the fact that the Fed announces its rate decision on Wednesday and that options expire on Friday, and it's going to be a very busy week. Read more...

March, 03 2014
Market Wrap as of March 03

After months of increasingly violent confrontations between the Russian-backed government and reformist Western-leaning protestors Ukraine appears at heightened risk of fracturing with reactionary elements reportedly taking over key facilities in the Russian-leaning area of Crimea. Read more...

March, 03 2014
Ukraine : Geopolitics Take Toll

Lots of incoming calls and emails from clients asking what is the real Russian take on the events in Ukraine, not the stuff that you read in the Western press/media coverage. I decided to put some colour in writing for you. Read more...

February, 24 2014
Market Wrap as of February 24:

Investors seem jittery. In addition to an increasingly scary situation in Ukraine, they have had to digest yet another week of downbeat US data. It is obvious that growth has slowed. But this begs the more important questions of why activity has weakened so abruptly and where it is headed from here. The answer to these questions will determine if the consensus expectations of a meaningful pick-up in the economy this year is still defensible or not. Read more...

February, 20 2014
Gold New Trend : the Gold Bugs Revenge

The bears have been in control of gold and the gold miners since 2011. The past year saw an acceleration of the rate of decent in their prices. Sentiment on gold has become extremely bearish. But that trend appears to be changing and the gold charts are showing some breakouts from the downtrend. Read more...

February, 19 2014
Market Wrap as of February 19

The US activity data have been a bit soft recently—for January, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, payroll employment, retail sales, and industrial production have all been weak. Concern over emerging market vulnerabilities appears to have ebbed for now. And the upbeat US policy backdrop is also likely helping to support risk appetites. Read more...

January, 20 2014
Market Wrap as of January 20

As markets stride toward new all-time highs on valuations that have historically coincided with other market peaks, it would be wise to count your blessings and better still, count your managers and understand their strategies and processes. This is literally the kind of market environment where the tide lifts all boats. But we are on the trajectory of what may become the third asset bubble in twenty years that will inescapably pop. Now is the time to review your positioning and plan accordingly. Read more...

January, 13 2014
Market Wrap as of January 13 : Looking for Direction

January sets the tone. If stocks finish the month higher, the market generally ends the year in the green. If it slips, we might be in store for a less-than-spectacular year. Think of the market as a sprinter waiting for the gun to fire. A strong first move could make up for fatigue along the home stretch, while a stumble out of the blocks can end the race in the first few steps. Read more...

December, 26 2013
Weekly Market Wrap as of December 22

Just shy of the new year, financial markets continue to be dominated by the extent of monetary accommodation. Especially in major advanced economies, bonds and stocks have shrugged off the summer sell-off and posted gains on the view that low policy rates and large-scale asset purchases would persist longer. Much attention has been given to the hope of a strengthening in the U.S. economy. Read more...

December, 11 2013
Weekly Market Wrap as of December 9

As the year draws to a close, investors are searching for clues as to what may be in store for the economy and markets in 2014. What have we learned from the markets in the month of November? Honestly, not very much. The scenario has not changed much in the last 30 days. Read more...

December, 04 2013
(Short) Weekly Market Comments as of December 2

As we enter the final month of 2013, themes of the last several weeks continue – the capital markets, in general, remain quiet and U.S. economic data, while mixed, shows signs of steady improvement. Read more...

November, 28 2013
Market Comments as of November 26 : Bitcoin Forever

Monetary policy speculation seemed to drive market price action past week led by the re-intensification of taper talk. Notwithstanding the Fed’s forceful guidance on September 18 and October 30 that the taper decision is data dependent and not on some pre-set schedule, markets continue to scour Fed-speak for signals on when the central bank expects to reduce its pace of asset purchases. Read more...

November, 21 2013
Market Comments as of November 18 : Printfest

The positive response from the market following the appearance before Congress of Janet Yellen, the nominee for US Federal Reserve chairwoman, has successfully opened the door for a rally through the end of the year. Once again, the flood of momentum-chasing hot-money provided by the world's central banks' printfest is leading investors to push up equities markets to the highest level since 2011 amid optimism that the economy is recovering. Read more...

November, 13 2013
Market Comments as of November 10 :

For a few brief minutes last Thursday, the world celebrated Mario Draghi's 'surprise' rate cut as just the medicine that an all-time high stock market needs to go even higher. European stocks popped champagne-like (with Italy and Spain jumping 2 to 2.5% on the news), EUR collapsing, and peripheral bond spreads dropping notably. PREMIUM Investment Strategy : How best to preserve your capital Read more...

November, 07 2013
Market Comments as of November 4 : Ursus Extinctus ?

-Government shutdown? Check. -Spying on citizens and allies? Check. -Bursting stock bubble? That's next. I know you've felt it in the pit of your stomach... that feeling that the market is going up for all the wrong reasons — and will soon come crashing down yet again. The fact of the matter is with $17 trillion in debt, the U.S. government can no longer sustain itself like it has without implementing drastic measures... ones that will make the austerity measures going on in Europe right now look like a springtime walk in the park. Read more...

October, 30 2013
Market Comments as of October 28

All sorts of economic data were released last week, but volatility has dropped: rightly or wrongly, market forecasts about the pace of quantitative easing (QE) and earnings growth in the U.S. appear to have coalesced around an outlook for “slow growth with ongoing QE”. Read more...

October, 23 2013
Market Comments as of October 21: All pain no brain!!!

An eleventh hour deal was reached last week to end the latest US fiscal crisis. Congress called a time-out in the budget/debt fight last week, striking a deal to avoid default and fund the U.S. government through January 15, 2014 and raise the debt limit through February 7, 2014. Read more...

October, 20 2013
РОССИЯ ЗОВЕТ ! - RUSSIA CALLING !

The “Russia Calling!” Investment Forum provides a platform for developing dialogue between Russian business and the international investment community. Prominent political and business community figures from around the world are taking part in the event. The forum is examining development trends in the Russian and global economies and the state’s role in an investment model for growth. Read more...

October, 16 2013
Weekly Market Wrap as of October 14 : The Wizards of Ponz

Alarm bells went off: “Yellen props stocks,” the headline read. Somebody needs to. Politicians in Washington are actively contemplating how to most effectively send the largest and brokest debtor in the history of the universe into default. Corporate revenues can’t keep up with inflation. Read more...

October, 09 2013
Weekly Market Wrap as of October 7

It’s clear to everyone by now that the government of the largest country in the world is careening towards default in just over 200 hours. Yet curiously, even though the US government’s completely ridiculous, untenable fiscal situation is a front page embarrassment for the entire world to see, markets have barely budged. A few very short-term rates have shot up, but for the most part, stocks are very close to where they were before the shutdown. Stocks and bonds haven’t moved because nobody cares what’s happening in the US government anymore. Read more...

October, 01 2013
Weekly Market Review as of September 29

The budget and debt ceiling fights at putting the economy at risk like of a “Thelma and Louise” moment—the Republicans and Democrats might drive the economy over a fiscal cliff. I’ve decided that that’s not the best movie allusion. We have to go back farther, to “Rebel Without a Cause” where James Dean and Sal Mineo raced their cars toward a cliff: If you jump out first, you’re a loser and a coward. If you don’t jump out in time, you’re dead. Read more...

September, 25 2013
Weekly Market Review as of September 23 :

The Fed’s policy announcement provided two key lessons. First, although it talks of transparency, the Fed doesn’t mind surprising markets. Second, the Fed is even more dovish than we have been assuming. These lessons have important implications for market volatility in the near term and perhaps even economic and financial stability in the longer term. Read more...

September, 11 2013
Russia : Are you contrarian enough ?

It’s true that Russia’s economy is slowing down along with other Emerging Markets, and its also true that the authorities don’t have any easy choices: monetary easing will likely spark inflation, and the state’s ability to engage in fiscal pump-priming is highly constrained. Growth over the next few years will be decidedly sub-par when compared to the 2000 boom years and even to the modest 2010-12 bounce back from the Great Recession. Read more...

September, 09 2013
Weekly Market Review as of September 8 : Forward Guidance

Tapering is not the most important Fed decision this September. Instead, it is how the Fed is able to simultaneously navigate big personnel change, fight its own forecasts, and signal tapering in the context of potentially undermining the value of its thresholds. A CNBC survey found that nearly three-quarters of their survey respondents expect the Fed to taper in the Sept-Oct period (43% and 30% respectively), up from 60% in the July survey. Read more...

September, 08 2013
Emerging Chronicles : The Final Tweet Of The Global Canary In The Coal Mine

Albert Edwards, the uber-bearish strategist at Societe Generale, is warning clients that the ongoing devastation in the emerging markets is a sign of bad things to come. He links what is happening now to his call at the end of last year that the EMs were heading for a balance of payments crisis and would see a currency debacle similar to 1997 was met with total indifference. We still find the same disregard to our call for a renminbi  devaluation. Read more...

September, 03 2013
Gold Update : A Fun Poker Game Ahead

We remain globally bullish on gold bullion and on some miners. Considering their respective behavior either Gold is moving higher and Miners will move at a greater speed or Gold will move lower and Miners will tend to correct less. The fact that gold is starting to outperform strongly into the September Fed meeting may mean bets are rising that the Fed will not rock the boat, but instead re-adjust crowd mentality away from cutting back on bond buying. Read more...

September, 02 2013
Weekly Market Review as of August 31

Risk appetites eroded this week, sending investors to the typical safe havens. A number of factors appear to be contributing to the return of the risk-off trade, including some poor US activity data, growing worries about emerging markets, and concerns over potential fallout from a possible Western intervention into the Syrian civil war. Read more...

August, 27 2013
Is the Story of Emerging Markets Intact ?

"Taper terror" following news the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to begin slowing its asset purchases spurred an en masse stampede of funds from many regional markets and currencies – most notably in Indonesia and India. Emerging markets equity exposure in August fell to its lowest level since November 2001 as fund managers globally fled the segment and piled into developed markets, Read more...

August, 26 2013
Weekly Market Review as of August 26

The week was dominated by the Fed's minutes. On balance, markets read the Fed’s minutes as mildly hawkish. Specifically, investors appeared to focus on the observation in the minutes that “almost all participants” were comfortable with Chairman Bernanke’s guidance that the Fed would begin tapering the pace of its asset purchase later this year... if the economy improves as expected... Read more...

August, 19 2013
Weekly Market Review as of August 19

After several weeks of range trading, rates were stretching higher this week. Indeed, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield closed above 2.75% for the first time in just over two years. This in turn has ratcheted-up the pressure on the year’s otherwise impressive equity rally. Read more...

August, 16 2013
Some Fresh Air for the Miners

Does the idea of buy low and sell high still make sense? If so, does a 50% year-to-date decline qualify as low enough to buy? Mining stocks have had a rough year for sure! The Miners ETF was recently down 50% from its January 1 2013 price. Read more...

August, 12 2013
Weekly Market Review as of August 12

“Keep Calm and Carry On” Central Banks can relay the WW II motto for themselves as there is no other alternative than continuing to provide the global economy with liquidities (even though that they mainly sustain a “financial economy” (virtual) and prepare an hyper inflation environment (which is not yet the case) delaying the bubble explosion- Read more...

August, 06 2013
Apple : Premium Reco Update

What is it about the present pattern that is important? The Power of the Pattern suggests that Apple could be facing its most important price test since it hit $700 per share! Read more...

August, 05 2013
Weekly Market Review as of August 5

Risk appetites got a big boost this week from central bank dovishness. The Fed, the ECB, and the BoE each released their latest policy decisions. And while they all left policy rates unchanged, both the Fed and the ECB went out of their way to reassure markets that they anticipate leaving these rates extremely low for a long time yet. Read more...

July, 30 2013
Thunder Road Report : How are they going to turn this around?

One of the slightly irregular economic publications I look forward to receiving is Paul Mylchreest’s Thunder Road Report. In his new publication PAul reviews the preoccupation of the financial markets with anticipating the next intervention by central banks and offers some telling observations about gold. Read more...

July, 29 2013
Weekly Market Review as of July 28

Like AMC’s TV series “The Walking Dead,” the bull market in stocks keeps on going despite getting no respect. Data from the Investment Company Institute showing that investors have been net sellers in stocks four out of the five past months. Like a Walker (what zombies are called in the show), the market’s body has been riddled with countless bullets and wounds such as fiscal cliff tax increases and the sequester, along with international headwinds like Europe’s recession and slowing growth in China. But it just keeps on going. Read more...

July, 18 2013
Weekly Market Review as of July 14

This week, Fed Chairman Bernanke reassured markets that the Fed was in absolutely no rush to tighten policy. Some saw the Chairman striking a decidedly more dovish tone than in his June 19 press conference at which he announced the Fed’s latest thinking that tapering of asset purchases may begin later this year. Read more...

July, 08 2013
Weekly Market Review as of July 7

Even though this was a slow week, it's still important to get your bearings. If stocks do follow through with another move lower, where will they land? I think we'll see the broad market sneak lower from here. Futures are a little off this morning, upside momentum is gone, and we're entering the summer doldrums. All of this adds up to a sideways or falling market for a little while. Read more...

July, 03 2013
Q3 Guide to the Market

Investors have a lot of things to consider before they make their next move. To help with this, David Kelly and the market strategy team at J.P. Morgan Asset Management have built the best presentation on the state of the markets and the economy we have seen so far. Read more...

July, 02 2013
Weekly Market Comments as of June 30

I really struggled with last week's forecast since I absolutely hate the idea of a delayed reaction. In general, I do not like such explanations, and sharp readers could easily find my own words on this subject. We got a lot more than digestion. It was a full-fledged hissy fit. Since the issue has not been settled, the debate continues. Read more...

June, 23 2013
Weekly Market Wrap as of June 23

Markets are reacting to the Fed's first "tap on the brakes". The fear among market participants is that once the Fed begins to cut its current asset purchase program – which is still a hypothetical development, depending on future economic data – it will be just the first step toward normalized (higher) short-term interest rates. Read more...

June, 17 2013
Weekly Market Wrap as of June 15

The past few weeks have given us a hint of what might happen when the FED starts to reverse its super-easy monetary policy. Expect turbulence in financial markets, especially for assets that have moved far above normal or reasonable valuations. Both the Fed's "tapering" and ECB's "open mindedness" regarding a negative deposit rate were types of forward guidance. Read more...

June, 10 2013
Geneva Forum for Sustainable Investment (GFSI)

Genève est la capitale mondiale de la microfinance avec 30% de parts de marché (sur un total de plus de 10 milliards). La finance durable fait partie des trois priorités que s’est fixée l’ASB fin 2012. Si les initiatives privées se développent, le soutient public se fait encore attendre et l'on s’étonne que les autorités suisses ne s’impliquent pas davantage dans le développement de cette industrie. Read more...

June, 10 2013
Weekly Market Review as of June 8

We're Hiring ! Here are new opening at the NSA. Business is booming, good salaries are paid, and multiple passports are issued. No names are required, references hit, and you can never be fired. You can be terminated however, and the retirement program is by Smith and Wesson. Read more...

June, 04 2013
Japan : Plan 'jg' B

"Je doute d’une part que l’on ait vraiment expliqué à la population japonaise qu’elle allait être non seulement le dindon de la farce, mais aussi le cobaye. D’autre part, les épargnants et retraités tant européens qu’américains seraient bien inspirés de regarder du côté du Japon. C’est là-bas que s’expérimente leur avenir." -Andreas Höfert -UBS Read more...

June, 02 2013
A Second Thought : What Could Go Wrong?

I spend the week in New York City where I have been having conversations with advisors, fund managers, investors, about looking at things from the standpoint of what could go wrong. As interest rates stay low it is also natural for people to search for places they can get yield- also what could go right. I have no problem with upside but you need to first focus on what could go wrong. Read more...

June, 02 2013
Weekly Market Review as of May 31

May was a rough month for Treasuries. Specifically, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note jumped roughly 50 basis points, the steepest rise in a month since December 2010. To be sure, much of the move merely reversed the impressive rates rally of March and April. The glass-half full commentators will point out that the S&P 500 rose 2.08% for the month. Read more...

May, 24 2013
WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW AS OF MAY 24

Markets made a sharp shift into “risk-off” mode this week. Given that the risk rally had come so far, so fast, investors were perhaps due for some reassessment of risk appetites. Interestingly, the triggers for this reassessment appear to be a curious mix of concerns about global growth prospects and fears that monetary policy could perhaps be tightened sooner than expected. In any case, this nasty combination sent both equities and government bonds lower. Read more...

May, 21 2013
Emerging Chronicles : China Rebound ?

The world’s second largest economy is still growing at a slower pace than in recent years. Investors, however, might be getting used to it. Investment growth still holds the key to sustaining the growth recovery. We expect Beijing to keep policy relatively accommodative to strengthen growth momentum and avoid a further deterioration of labour market conditions. A reversal could happen, a technical analysis Read more...

May, 20 2013
WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW AS OF MAY 18

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials both closed at all time highs again in US trading overnight. America’s blue chip indices are up 18.28% and 18.07% year to date, respectively. But the US has nothing to envy to Japan when it comes to boosting stock prices with money printing. Japan’s Nikkei 300 is up 46.6% so far this year. And it’s not even June. Read more...

May, 15 2013
Special Premium Reco

From its all-time high on 21 September 2012 of $693.21, Apple’s stock declined by 44.8%, eventually reaching a low of $382.57 on 19 April this year. Having encountered major support (buying), the stock rallied until late last week when it encountered minor resistance (selling) at around $463. Read more...

May, 13 2013
WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW AS OF MAY 10

A hot topic among many investors right now is when monetary policy will begin tightening. There is no doubt that this is an important question because tightening has the potential to impose substantial stress on markets and the economy in the best of circumstances, let alone in the current environment where such extreme policy accommodation must be withdrawn. Read more...

May, 10 2013
Tax Efficiency : Catch Me If You Can

Seeing more than 250 people gathered in a large luxurious hotel in Geneva early in the morning is quite impressive and it tells more than any polls how anxious are asset managers and private bankers (not to mention their clients) on the latest regulatory process and tax treaties accepted by the Swiss Administration. Ironically, it also showed how dynamic and imaginative is the financial engineering to achieve "tax efficiency". Read more...

May, 06 2013
WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW AS OF MAY 4

In a world where government deficits are rising, interest rates are at record lows, central banks are printing money, unemployment remains stubbornly high, and bank deposits are being raided to rescue insolvent banks, it is hard to believe that he financial and other markets do not seem to reflect the reality of subdued growth. Stock prices are high, or at least back to levels reached more than a decade ago, and bond yields contain a significant inflationary expectations premium. Read more...

May, 03 2013
Investment Outlook

Sell in May and Go Away...When investors are fearful, they look to hedge their portfolios by buying “insurance” that will protect them if the market falls. Ironically,markets are at their very best when everyone is scared out of their minds. Is fear is a better reason than fundamentals to own stocks right now ? We give you our latest Asset Allocation Read more...

April, 27 2013
WEEKLY MARKETS REVIEW AS OF APRIL 27

The financial and other markets do not seem to reflect the reality of subdued growth. Stock prices are high, or at least back to levels reached more than a decade ago, and bond yields contain a significant inflationary expectations premium. Stock and commodity prices have risen in concert with the announcement of QE1, QE2 and QE3. Read more...

April, 26 2013
Gold and Mining – Trapped Investors? (Update)

“We have always had a position in gold. When you think about the largest central banks in the world, they have all moved to unlimited printing ideology. Monetary policy happens to be the only game in town. I am perplexed as to why gold is as low as it is. I don't have a great answer for you other then you should maintain a position.” Kyle Bass Read more...

April, 21 2013
WEEKLY MARKETS REVIEW AS OF APRIL 19

Risk aversion ruled this week. There are some worries about earnings, with revenues looking a little squishy. With the giddiness of new all-time highs, however, comes a note of caution. The giddiness may be short-lived. Read more...

April, 16 2013
Don’t Forget Your Golden Parachute

In a highly emotional market, even just one or two days can make a big difference in terms of where prices end up. Still, there were certainly a few noteworthy developments, all of which are not surprisingly conveying that sheer panic broke out in the gold market last week. We endured the 1980 gold peak and we learned that merely being “oversold” will not lead to a massive rally that magically pulls gold out of its slide. Read more...

April, 14 2013
WEEKLY MARKETS REVIEW AS OF APRIL 13

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to extract market signals as the massive of flood of Bank of Japan money printing begins to flow into the global tributary, which also includes the Fed’s quantitative easing. Markets, in our opinion, are going to become incredibly gummed up and exhibit unprecedented and unpredictable behavior throughout the rest of the year. Read more...

April, 12 2013
« Offshore leaks» or the end of bank confidentiality ?

On my way to one fashionable spot in the Swiss Alps, one favorite of international wealthy people, I wonder what « offshore leaks » consequences can have for our clients, as well as for their lawyers, tax specialists, trustees and bankers. But also for governments, tax authorities, for Swiss citizens and for myself. My job of private banker and as well as swiss investment specialist does not become easier, however more interesting with new challenges to be raised! Read more...

April, 08 2013
Gold : A Reason to Trust Central Banks?

It’s clear that central banks around the world are buying gold in record quantities. It almost makes you wonder... do they know something we don’t? Read more...

March, 31 2013
Emerging Chronicles : Turkey, A promising Grand Baazar

All developing countries rose last year, but stocks in Turkey climbed an astounding 56 percent. Istanbul has been in the midst of a fantastic transformation from an impoverished population to one of affluence. Popping up among the beautiful Ottoman mosques, Byzantine churches, palaces and bazaars are ultra-contemporary art sculptures, shopping malls and lush landscaping. Read more...

March, 25 2013
Diesel, Dust and Dreams : The Triple "D" New Frontier Markets

Following our previous mail "Loosen Your Seatbelts" many people have asked me what are frontier markets? In summary, they are the next emerging markets and include the likes of Kazakhstan, Romania, Nigeria and Vietnam. The key characteristics are the fact that they are overlooked by investors and have offered fewer investment opportunities. Read more...

March, 22 2013
Socially Responsible Investment returns in periods of crisis

Last Tuesday, the first “Geneva Summit On Sustainable Finance” was held. From what I could hear and discuss, it was largely encouraging. Suffice to say, I caught up on updates with many researchers and practitioners who presented the tendencies of the market. I met with public and private socially responsible finance managers and heard plenty of fine stories. Where’s this discipline heading? Let’s discuss… Read more...

February, 14 2013
The price of silver could absolutely skyrocket.

ALERT : SEE OUR BLOG FOR Gold Market Update as of Monday 18, 2013 One of the slightly irregular economic publications I look forward to receiving is Paul Mylchreest’s Thunder Road Report. On this latest occasion he has restricted his comments to silver and the report is much shortert. Paul predicts a sharp rise in the silver price within the next six months based on historic cyclical data. Read more...

February, 12 2013
Gold and Mining - Trapped Investors?

Like an old gold panner I keep standing straight in my boots ! Some readers may question if gold stocks really have snapped out of their funk. We could discuss this topic for many pages, but the bottom line for us is simple: if you believe gold and silver prices are going higher, then equity prices will follow. In the process of updating our Gold Report, here is a Technical Analysis preview. Read more...

February, 06 2013
Time to sell bonds?

If bonds are topping, what kind of world would that look like? Despite the current optimism about stock prices that’s a question you don’t want answered. Bonds are facing headwinds, but a number of indicators are suggesting that they may be stiffer than previously thought. Read more...

February, 04 2013
The Pitfalls Of Buying Alternative Investments

“The first thing to ask yourself is, ‘Do I really have the sophistication to understand what’s going on here?’’’ The reality? Alternatives are tricky to find and understand. That means most investors rely on ­private banks, brokers or other financial pros as intermediaries, raising the risk they will be steered into products that generate tons of fees for the advisors and not much for the investor. Read more...

January, 29 2013
'Loosen your seatbelts' in emerging markets

Loosen your seat belts is HSBC strategists advice to investors. Following a return for the risk appetite this year is one in which investors should take more risk in emerging markets, especially in equities. Read more...

January, 28 2013
Decoding the 'Signals' From Davos

In turbulent times, the glass can be seen as half full or half empty. In Davos, you hear passionate advocacy of both. Personally, I believe the rewards will not be spread evenly and will need open-minded, trusted, and responsible people- those who will change the game. We must embrace the uncertainty and try to shape the future rather than letting it shape us. Read more...

January, 21 2013
The Thunder Road Report : The End Game

The turbocharged, debt-driven over-consumption of past decades must be undone. We are on the brink of a tsunami of new money/credit creation to delay its failure. This will be the final run to the summit of the Ponzi scheme. All Ponzi schemes end and there will have to be a system reboot. This is a “Crisis of the Ages” And you thought we were bearish. More – if you can take it - in December Thunder Road Report... Read more...

January, 08 2013
Reco for the next ten years...

The New Normal will “take you down” and lower your expectation of future asset returns. It may not last “forever” but it will be with us for a long, long time. So instead of guessing what's going to happen in 2013, let's talk about what the world will look like in 2023... Here's my one prediction for 2013 that should carry through the next 10 years: Read more...

January, 07 2013
Emerging Chronicle

The “year of the dragon” in 2012 certainly didn’t disappoint, as the global markets battled one financial dragon after another. From the Eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis to persistently high unemployment in the U.S. and a mayday call from many who worried that China’s growth rate was headed for a “hard landing,” 2012 certainly was interesting. What the "year of the Snake" will bring us ? Read more...

January, 02 2013
Surprise, Surprise...

In 2012 some investment ideas succeeded well beyond expectations, while others failed miserably. In all cases, with surprises lurking around virtually every corner, investors certainly had their fill of high drama. By nature surprises are unexpected, but this doesn't mean that they have to be unanticipated (contrary to a black swan). On the contrary, successful investors are always ready for change, while others, it seems, are perpetually blindsided. Read more...

December, 27 2012
2013 Macro Predictions : Boom or Gloom

The most hopeful thing in my mind is that the Status Quo is devolving from its internal contradictions and excesses. It is a perverse, intensely destructive system with horrific incentives for predation, exploitation, fraud and complicity and few disincentives. A more human world lies just beyond the edge of the Status Quo. Read more...

December, 27 2012
Investment Strategy Q1-2013

To favor an exposure to the Asian currencies or to be interested in companies exposed to emerging countries. That is the question facing every investor to cope with the process of reindustrialization underway due to the Central Banks accommodative policies and the drop of their currencies, undermining the "mature" emerging economies. Read more...

December, 16 2012
What Do We Believe For 2013 ?

Whoever considers the past and the present will readily observe that all cities and all peoples... ever have been animated by the same desires and the same passions; so that it is easy, by diligent study of the past, to foresee what is likely to happen in the future in any republic, and to apply those remedies that were used by the ancients, or not finding any that were employed by them, to devise new ones from the similarity of events. ( Machiavelli in his Discorsi ) Read more...

December, 09 2012
Commodities still enjoy their Y2K

Among investors these days, a fellow commodity bull is about as rare as finding a positive story in the media, especially when you look at the results of metals and natural resources during the most of 2012. Today we have a chance to play this shift in long-term resource prices. I have rarely been more excited to talk positively about how investors can take advantage of the anomalies and trends in the market. Read more...

December, 03 2012
Market Themes for 2013

Agree or disagree, one thing is for sure - these ten 'themes' will impact us all one way or another and for each theme, Goldman discusses the wider implications for markets, and the potential issues and options for investing around them. Read more...

December, 03 2012
Environmental Analysis and Sovereign Bonds

While the classic rating agencies continue to focus on the financial debts, some investors want to integrate environmental and social criteria into the notation of Sovereign debt. A way of going out of the ”all financial”? Read more...

November, 23 2012
"We don't command the winds, but we can adjust the sails !"

A recent study by Boston Consulting Group, estimated that Swiss banks could see a decline of as much as 28 percent by 2014 if currently proposed laws change in banking secrecy in Switzerland. Singapore (and Hong Kong) would each benefit from this power shift in money. Read more...

November, 20 2012
Gold Mines : Muddy Boots

I spent the first half of last week at the Geneva Gold Mining Investment Conference, talking with investors, mining companies and analysts about the state of the gold industry. The annual conference falls at an interesting time of the year, as the price of gold typically corrects in October. I present you some researches and a summary on the Gold industry and the gold miners. Read more...

November, 18 2012
2013 Emerging Markets Forecasts:

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects an emerging markets forecast with growth at 5.6% in 2013. That’s down slightly from 2011 but far ahead of the measly 1.5% growth projected in the “advanced” economies. That means investors need to focus heavily their investments in emerging markets. Read more...

October, 26 2012
Appetite grows for Russian IPOs

Russian IPOs are back on the menu after Russia’s biggest bank, Sberbank, broke a four-year lean spell with a secondary public offering that raised $5.3 billion. As a slew of companies dust off plans for listings, investors will be keeping an eye out for the next big sale, from No. 2 mobile operator Megafon, to gauge the appetite for Russian risk. Read more...

October, 09 2012
GOLD – From the Situation Room

Gold has an uncanny ability to resemble tangible wealth. When the monetary powers that be finally come to the realization that printing dollars isn’t going to fix the problem – the world monetary system will fall to the golden common denominator. Read more...

October, 08 2012
РОССИЯ ЗОВЕТ ! - RUSSIA CALLING !

Here some of our thoughts and comments after discussions and meetings with international investors and domestic players of developing Russia at the VTB Capital Investment Forum. Here are general topics but we believe to invest into one country and participate to its growth you have to understand its culture and soul as to be able to grow with the country Read more...

October, 02 2012
Q4 Economic Forecasts 2 : Emerging

We have been in a tradable countertrend rally, and we are participating, while keeping a wary eye on the door. The crisis that began in 2008 is – at best – only half done, and it should be a priority to survive the remainder of the bad years, so as to be able to enjoy the next bull-phase – surely to occur sometime during the coming century or two. Patience is a great virtue, we are told. We hope to attain it – preferably RIGHT NOW! Read more...

September, 17 2012
Notation des Etats : évaluer les pays au-delà de leurs finances

Alors que les agences de notation classiques continuent de se focaliser sur les dettes financières, des investisseurs veulent intégrer des critères environnementaux et sociaux dans la notation des Etats. Une manière de sortir du tout financier ? Read more...

August, 06 2012
Emerging Markets Investment Themes

The following ETFs provide access to the growth potential of emerging markets, along with the added benefits of diversification, liquidity and cost effectiveness Read more...

July, 27 2012
Gold : from the Situation Room

We don’t see how U.S. “monetary technology” — the dollar — can hold its value over the long haul. Our fallback position is to keep building a precious metal portfolio based on physical metal and investing in well-run miners. Along with gold, every portfolio should have exposure to silver. Read more...

July, 23 2012
Chronique des marchés émergents : Wild West....China

Si John Wayne était né dans les années 2000, il serait chinois. D’abord l’esprit aventurier. Ne comptez pas sur des routes de bonnes qualités si vous voulez quitter l’est, et encore moins sur un train qui parte à l’heure. Il serait également précieux pour approcher les populations locales. Read more...

July, 20 2012
GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

There are plenty of forecasts out there, but today Stratfor, a geopolitical analysis company, has one of the most rigorous methodologies out there, and their forecasts provide excellent insight into the outcome of world events in the coming quarter. Europe, Syria, and China are the big three to watch the next three to six months. Read more...

June, 28 2012
Scouting The Triple D (Diesel, Dust, Dreams) Markets

Things do not seem very joyful on many fronts: crisis of the European Union, budgetary and monetary madness in the United States and problems of debt which threaten Japan - to name only three. For many investors who concentrate only on these markets, the morning waking must be difficult. But the world changes. Here is an update on some Frontier Markets we recently explored. Read more...

June, 09 2012
Strategy Update : From Extreme Greed to Extreme Fear

We must face the truth as we wanted to offer some paths under the premise that mankind could save from itself. That the folly, the misconceptions, the constant repetition of the same errors expecting that somehow, radically different results would be attained, was susceptible to change.
NO! Mankind simply does not desire to be saved – and we rants in vain. Read more...

June, 04 2012
Au Chevet de la Planète : Changez le logiciel

Aucune percée n'est attendue à Rio. Les débats sur l'économie verte et les Objectifs du développement durable peuvent être utiles. Mais c'est surtout sur la gouvernance de l'environnement et la feuille de route qu'il faudra en juger les résultats. Voir un point de situation sur notre blog Read more...

May, 18 2012
La finance responsable, une force d'innovation recherchée par la clientèle

La finance responsable est perçue comme une voie d'avenir pour une industrie mise à mal par les différentes crises financières et pour satisfaire aux exigences nouvelles de la clientèle. Selon l'enquête menée en 2011 par l'institution Genève Place Financière, la finance durable constitue un axe de développement pour les cinq à dix prochaines années. Read more...

May, 14 2012
Emerging Market Review :Russia's Competitive Advantage

Russia’s Investment Climate Shines Among Other High Growth Economies Despite the prevailing bleak economic outlook, there is a silver lining for investors willing to brave the odds to do business in Russia, a new report found. Read more...

May, 08 2012
The Adjusted Gold/XAU Ratio as an Indicator of Forward Returns for Gold Stocks

The latest data have a clear message for investors: gold stocks are attractively priced. That’s the current finding of the model for evaluating stock prices of gold mining concerns, updating historic data to incorporate information as of April 30, 2012. See blog http://claude-investlogic.blogspot.com/ and note >> Read more...

April, 13 2012
Gold The Most Volatile Year: Buy The Dips, Sell The Rips

Although the yellow metal has been on a spectacular 11-year bull run, recent strength in the economy–or at least the rising likelihood that the Fed will not be as loose in its creation of liquidity–has some investors thinking gold’s heyday is over. Throughout gold’s decade-long rise, price action over the short-term has gone both ways. http://bit.ly/Il41ET Read more...