Q2 Investment Strategy & Asset Allocation

April, 11 2024

Q1 : When Bad News Is Good News

As we conclude the first quarter of 2024, the financial performance fired on all cylinders in March. Global equities rose by 3% in a month where all regions posted positive results.

We believe the market has been overly optimistic about its rate cut expectations.  Back in January 2024, market participants were anticipating seven or more interest rate cuts by the Fed and starting in the first quarter of the year.

On the heels of Fed Chair Powell’s comments in late March, the onset of the interest rate unwinding has again shifted to the Fed’s June meeting and could still be delayed.  The U.S. equity market has nonetheless responded by moving to a new all-time high.

It has been our view all along that it was more likely the Fed would keep rates “higher for longer”.

Fed Chair Powell’s March comments went a long way toward bringing market expectations more realistically in line with the Fed’s view. Failure to obtain the rate cuts priced into the market could spark a correction if the Fed does not deliver. A key driver of equity market returns this year has been the focus on Artificial Intelligence stocks.

The AI frenzy remains in full effect, yet the valuation ratios for the AI leaders and other semiconductor companies, while up sharply over the past 15 months, are not in the extreme “bubble” territory seen in the late 1990s.

Q2 : Be Aware !

We always have opted for an investment strategy that works well during challenging times, too, focuses on the major growth opportunities of the future, but is risk-aware. The subdued economic outlook allows us to maintain our overall risk-controlled positioning.

 

The recipe for success is a well-planned investment with limited risk. If you have a clear, long-term strategy, you should stick to it. Investment is similar to many other aspects of life: patience and perseverance lead to long-term success. The subdued economic outlook allows us to maintain our overall defensive positioning.

Also see  Well-Informed Investors

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Until next time